Is "Disengagement" Promoting Security, Economy and Democracy ?

by Yoram Ettinger
August 15, 2005

1. CONTINUED DECLINE IN ISRAELI PUBLIC SUPPORT OF 
"DISENGAGEMENT". 
According to August 12, 2005 Dialogue Polling, commissioned by 
the Dovish daily, Ha'aretz, 45% support "Disengagement", 
down from 55% two months ago, in spite of the total support for 
"disengagement" by Israel's media. 

2. ONE HALF OF ISRAEL'S DEFENSE BUDGET. 
The Head of Bank of Israel (Israel's Fed.), Prof. Stanley Fisher, 
cautions that the cost of "disengagement" will be significantly 
higher than appropriated, and will probably preclude the 
achievement of 2006 economic goals (Ma'ariv, August 15, 2005). 
Adding Fisher's assessment to the cost of replacing the water 
resources in northern Samaria, one reaches - at least - $3.5BN. 
It amounts to one half of Israel's defense budget.

3. GOVERNMENT EXPECTS MORE MISSILES AND TERRORISM. 
290 million Sheqels appropriated to improve defense of Kibbutzim 
and towns adjacent to Gaza. Mayors are advised on the 
administration of missile-plagued population. Sderot's public schools 
are fortified to withstand Palestinian missiles. 

4. DOVISH THINK TANK EXPECTS MORE TERRORISM. 
Tel Aviv's University's Jaffe Center for Strategic Studies projects 
exacerbated terrorist activity in Judea & Samaria as a result of 
"disengagement", with Gaza as the logistic headquarters.

5. AN UNCONTROLLABLE TERRORIST FLOW TO GAZA. 
The 1993 Oslo Accord snatched 20,000 Palestinian terrorists 
from oblivion in Yemen, Iraq, Sudan, Lebanon and Tunisia, 
establishing the largest terrorist base in the world in Israel's 
heartland. "Disengagement" would exacerbate the flow of 
Palestinian terrorists, by relinquishing Israel's control over 
the access to Gaza. Hizballah operatives are expected to 
arrive in higher numbers. The PA/PLO negotiates the transfer 
of thousands of Palestinian terrorists from Lebanon to Gaza. 
Lebanon's government is eager to rid itself of the 400,000 
Palestinians, who have been a permanent source of civil strives, 
pro-Syrian subversive activities and crime, since the 1970 arrival 
of the PLO to Lebanon. A larger terrorist reinforcement could 
emanate from Jordan and Syria. Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, 
and other traditional allies of the PA/PLO are expected to take 
advantage of the new access to the strategically pertinent 
eastern flank of the Mediterranean. 

6. REDUCING FRICTION AND MANAGING CONFLICT? 
Wishful-thinking has been crashed against Palestinian conviction 
that terrorism - rather than negotiation - has produced Israeli 
retreat from Gaza and northern Samaria. "Disengagement" has 
fueled HOPE-DRIVEN Palestinian terrorism (for further Jewish 
vacillation), which has been vindicated by a series of Israeli 
concessions to terrorism, initiated by the 1993 Oslo Accord 
and its offshoots (Hebron, Wye, Road Map and "Disengagement").

7. PRESIDENT BUSH OPPOSES "DISENGAGEMENT" IN IRAQ 
BUT ENCOURAGES IT IN GAZA? 
In his August 13, 2005 weekly radio address he stated: 
"[The terrorists] are trying to shake our will. They want to force 
free nations to retreat so they can topple governments across 
the Middle East, establish Taliban-like regimes in their place, 
and turn the Middle East into a launching pad for attacks against 
free people. The terrorists will fail. Because we are fighting a 
murderous ideology with a clear strategy, we're staying on the 
offensive in Iraq, Afghanistan and other fronts in the war on terror, 
fighting terrorists abroad so we do not have to face them here at 
home. When terrorists spend their days and nights struggling to 
avoid death or capture, they're less capable of arming and training 
and plotting new attacks on America..." That which the President 
observes in Iraq - 6,000 miles away from the US - is doubly 
appropriate for Gaza, Judea & Samaria - contiguous to Jerusalem, 
Tel Aviv and Haifa. 

8. "Once a country allows its foreign policy to be determined by 
terrorism, it has given the game away... No self-respecting 
government would allow that to happen..." (Australian Prime 
Minister John Howard, July 21, 2005 press conference, London).